Analyst firm IDC forecasts that PC prices will climb by up to 8% in 2026 due to ongoing DRAM and NAND shortages straining the supply chain. In a moderate scenario, expect 4-6% hikes, but severe constraints could push it higher, with vendors like Dell, Lenovo, HP, Acer, and ASUS already signaling 15-20% increases for H2 2026 shipments. These shortages, driven by AI server demand, also hit smartphone prices similarly.
Vendor Warnings and Market Shifts
Major players reset contracts and boost list prices to cope with the crunch. Dell’s COO Jeffrey Clarke highlighted during Q3 earnings that the Windows 10 to 11 transition lags 10-12 points behind past cycles, stalling upgrades and keeping sales flat. IDC predicts PC shipments could drop 4.9% in 2026, or up to 8.9% if shortages worsen.
AI PCs Losing Steam
The hype around AI PCs fades as shortages limit high-memory configs, forcing vendors to sell downgraded models to protect margins. This undermines on-device AI perks, with enterprise demand holding steady but consumer adoption low due to budgets and supply issues. Hardware struggles to match software claims, risking a mismatched ecosystem.
Summary of IDC Projections
| Aspect | Moderate Scenario | Severe Scenario | Key Impacts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price Increase | 4-6% overall | Up to 8% overall | Affects all PC segments |
| Vendor Adjustments | 15-20% hikes for H2 2026 | Higher contract resets | Dell, Lenovo, HP, etc. |
| Shipment Decline | 4.9% drop | Up to 8.9% drop | Due to supply constraints |
| AI PC Challenges | Downgraded specs | Inventory caution | Weakens value for buyers |
What This Means for PC Users
If you’re planning a build or upgrade, act soon—memory prices already surge, and this could add 2-3% to overall costs beyond hardware. Enterprise refreshes offer some stability, but consumers might stick with current rigs longer.
How will this impact your next PC purchase? Let us know in the comments, and follow PCrunner for tips on beating price hikes with smart builds.
Sources: IDC, TechPowerUp, Wccftech, TechSpot, Forbes, KitGuru
